sábado, 31 de diciembre de 2005
Norberg
Hola
Hoy os traigo la transcripción de una conferencia que Johan Norberg dió en Australia hace un mes.
Trata sobre como es posible que el mundo mejore pero no sólo no nos enteremos sinó que además pensemos que vamos a peor.
Explica como el ser humano esta diseñado para sólo ver los problemas y lanzarse a solucionarlos.
También explora el papel de la prensa en la creación de la visión colectiva sobre el mundo que nos rodea.
Os pongo unos extractos jugosos:
"Belief in the future is perhaps the most important value for a free society. It is what makes so many interested in getting an education, or investing in a project, or even being nice to their neighbours. If we think that nothing can improve or if we think that the world is coming to an end, we don’t work hard for a better and more civilised future. And we will all be miserable."
"We are wealthier, healthier and happier than we have ever been. We live longer, we live safer and we live freer than ever. For every successive generation, we have been able to build upon the knowledge, the technology and wealth of the earlier generations, and add our own. We have reduced poverty, created more wealth and increased life expectancy more in the last 50 years, than we did in the last 5 000 years.
I am not just saying that the glass is half-full rather than half-empty. I am saying that it used to be empty. Just 200 years ago slavery, feudalism and tyranny ruled the world. By our standards even the richest countries were extremely poor. The average chance of surviving your first year was less than the chance of surviving to retirement today."
*****************************************************************
"In other words: Don’t worry , be happy
But despite the fact that we are happy, we don’t seem to notice, and we do worry. "
*****************************************************************
"Mankind is a problem-solving species. Those who solved problems survived. And it means that we just keep looking for them. The moment we solve an old problem we don’t stop and enjoy the fact that we triumphed, we look for the next worse problem, and begin to work to solve it. We don’t lie awake at night and contemplate the fact that we have been able to deal with polio and tuberculosis, we lie awake at night and think about how to deal with HIV/AIDS, and worry about what bird flu might mean in the future. We don’t think about how great it is that we have eradicated malaria from the developed countries, we think about how horrible it is that so many people die from malaria in developing countries every day."
Progress also always creates some new challenge, and problem-solvers think more about the challenges than the progress. We live longer than ever. Isn’t that fantastic? No, because it results in higher costs for pensions and health care. At last poor countries make economic progress. Isn’t that wonderful? No, because we are now afraid that Polish plumbers and Indian programmers will take our jobs. There is always something to be scared about. In the 1970s, when temperatures were declining, we worried about a new ice age. Now they are increasing and we worry about global warming. We used to worry about everybody who was depressed, now new anti-depressant drugs have reduced suicide in rich countries by a fifth. And so we worry about so many people taking pills."
*****************************************************************
"The problem with a globalised world is that there is always a flood somewhere, there is always a serial murderer somewhere, and there is always starvation somewhere. And therefore there is constant supply of horrors to fill our TV screens. If you don’t know the background or study the statistics, it’s tempting to conclude that the world is getting worse."
*****************************************************************
"This means that we always have a cognitive bias that distorts our world view. We notice the things that stand out. In a world that is getting better, we tend to emphasise the problems that remain, even more. We don’t read in the papers that a train arrived safely on time. We read about it when there is a train crash. We don’t hear about someone who walked home from a pub. But we hear about it if he is beaten and mugged.
That a plane landed safely was news in 1903, when the Wright Brothers’ succeeded for the first time. But since December 1903, it has only been news when a plane crashes. Therefore, we exaggerate the frequency of crashes. Since the Second World War we have never seen as few plane crashes as we did in 2004, despite a dramatic increase in the number of flights. The number of crashes in the 1970s was four times the number today, despite the fact that we have four times more flights today. But don’t expect to learn this in the media. Expect instead huge reports the few times a crash happens. That a dog bites a man is not news, that a man bites a dog is. "
*****************************************************************
"The French liberal thinker Tocqueville observed this mental mechanism in the early 19 th century when he noticed that people began to discuss the problem of poverty during the industrial revolution. At first he thought that this was strange, since the growth of the manufacturing system meant higher wages and cheaper goods. Poverty was decreasing, but at the same time it was seen as a worse problem than before.
His conclusion was that this happened not despite but because poverty was being reduced. In earlier times, poverty was seen as something given. Something that was everywhere, and something that we just had to learn to endure. Religions evolved that explained the virtues of poverty. But in the 18 th and 19 th centuries, industrialisation created unprecedented wealth and millions were lifted out of poverty. The result was that the poverty that remained was perceived as so much worse. Now that people could see that the poor aren’t always with us, they began to wonder why we should put up with it. It wasn’t necessary, it could - and should - be changed. Poverty was not a given any more, it was now a social problem.
This created the impression for a long time that the industrial revolution created bigger social problems. Well, in a way it did - by making poverty an exception it created poverty as a problem in the minds of people. "
*****************************************************************
"But that is not the point I am interested in, the point here is to understand the kind of threats and warnings that special interests engage in, and how this distorts our worldview. Some reveal this openly. In an interview in Discover Magazine in October 1989, an often quoted environmentalist scientist and an expert on climate change, Professor Stephen Schneider, explained that:
”To [save the planet] we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have... Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.” "
*****************************************************************
"A few years ago a Swedish anti-globalist explained that he had been in a debate where the pro-capitalists had "constantly referred back to facts", but the anti-capitalists had been more successful because they "used examples from reality". Facts vs examples apparently. Aggregated statistics and broad abstractions vs flesh and blood. And I am not sure about who wins such a debate. We human beings like narratives and examples that we relate to. If an audience hears that there are almost 400 million fewer people in absolute poverty today than in 1981, but also hears a dramatic story about a specific individual who has fallen into poverty during this time - it’s not certain that they think that poverty has been reduced. And because of all the mechanisms and mentalities I have discussed, we don’t hear the first thing nearly as often as the latter."
*****************************************************************
"To regain the belief in progress and the future, we have to understand what creates it. It is not a coincidence, it is capitalism. It is the fact that people who are free create, the fact that we are problem-solvers, and the more people alive who are free to think and innovate, the greater the chance that some of them will develop useful knowledge, technology and wealth, and if the incentives are correct, if people reap the rewards of their labour, they will use and implement this, to change our world for the better. And in a world where billions are free to create, the chances of a better world are greater than ever. And therefore, we should believe in the future. Not naively, not like determinists thinking that nothing can go wrong. We know that conflicts, terrorism, disease and natural disasters can and will cause enormous damage. But as a recognition that mankind is smart, and that a free flow of information and of markets make us even smarter. And that we deal with problems better if we are free and wealthy. Each generation builds on the achievements of the past, and so have we have constantly more to build upon. Therefore, the greatest progress is yet to be made.
The long-run prospects are amazing. Today we have more people living longer lives in freer societies than ever, and we have more scientists alive today than lived in all previous periods combined, and they all get an education that is almost as long as a lifetime in earlier periods. Biotechnology, nanotechnology and robotics will create massive improvements. We will be richer, we will live longer and we will be healthier. Continents that we thought were doomed to misery will soon have the living standards we have today. "
Leedlo poco a poco que vale la pena.
Hoy os traigo la transcripción de una conferencia que Johan Norberg dió en Australia hace un mes.
Trata sobre como es posible que el mundo mejore pero no sólo no nos enteremos sinó que además pensemos que vamos a peor.
Explica como el ser humano esta diseñado para sólo ver los problemas y lanzarse a solucionarlos.
También explora el papel de la prensa en la creación de la visión colectiva sobre el mundo que nos rodea.
Os pongo unos extractos jugosos:
"Belief in the future is perhaps the most important value for a free society. It is what makes so many interested in getting an education, or investing in a project, or even being nice to their neighbours. If we think that nothing can improve or if we think that the world is coming to an end, we don’t work hard for a better and more civilised future. And we will all be miserable."
"We are wealthier, healthier and happier than we have ever been. We live longer, we live safer and we live freer than ever. For every successive generation, we have been able to build upon the knowledge, the technology and wealth of the earlier generations, and add our own. We have reduced poverty, created more wealth and increased life expectancy more in the last 50 years, than we did in the last 5 000 years.
I am not just saying that the glass is half-full rather than half-empty. I am saying that it used to be empty. Just 200 years ago slavery, feudalism and tyranny ruled the world. By our standards even the richest countries were extremely poor. The average chance of surviving your first year was less than the chance of surviving to retirement today."
*****************************************************************
"In other words: Don’t worry , be happy
But despite the fact that we are happy, we don’t seem to notice, and we do worry. "
*****************************************************************
"Mankind is a problem-solving species. Those who solved problems survived. And it means that we just keep looking for them. The moment we solve an old problem we don’t stop and enjoy the fact that we triumphed, we look for the next worse problem, and begin to work to solve it. We don’t lie awake at night and contemplate the fact that we have been able to deal with polio and tuberculosis, we lie awake at night and think about how to deal with HIV/AIDS, and worry about what bird flu might mean in the future. We don’t think about how great it is that we have eradicated malaria from the developed countries, we think about how horrible it is that so many people die from malaria in developing countries every day."
Progress also always creates some new challenge, and problem-solvers think more about the challenges than the progress. We live longer than ever. Isn’t that fantastic? No, because it results in higher costs for pensions and health care. At last poor countries make economic progress. Isn’t that wonderful? No, because we are now afraid that Polish plumbers and Indian programmers will take our jobs. There is always something to be scared about. In the 1970s, when temperatures were declining, we worried about a new ice age. Now they are increasing and we worry about global warming. We used to worry about everybody who was depressed, now new anti-depressant drugs have reduced suicide in rich countries by a fifth. And so we worry about so many people taking pills."
*****************************************************************
"The problem with a globalised world is that there is always a flood somewhere, there is always a serial murderer somewhere, and there is always starvation somewhere. And therefore there is constant supply of horrors to fill our TV screens. If you don’t know the background or study the statistics, it’s tempting to conclude that the world is getting worse."
*****************************************************************
"This means that we always have a cognitive bias that distorts our world view. We notice the things that stand out. In a world that is getting better, we tend to emphasise the problems that remain, even more. We don’t read in the papers that a train arrived safely on time. We read about it when there is a train crash. We don’t hear about someone who walked home from a pub. But we hear about it if he is beaten and mugged.
That a plane landed safely was news in 1903, when the Wright Brothers’ succeeded for the first time. But since December 1903, it has only been news when a plane crashes. Therefore, we exaggerate the frequency of crashes. Since the Second World War we have never seen as few plane crashes as we did in 2004, despite a dramatic increase in the number of flights. The number of crashes in the 1970s was four times the number today, despite the fact that we have four times more flights today. But don’t expect to learn this in the media. Expect instead huge reports the few times a crash happens. That a dog bites a man is not news, that a man bites a dog is. "
*****************************************************************
"The French liberal thinker Tocqueville observed this mental mechanism in the early 19 th century when he noticed that people began to discuss the problem of poverty during the industrial revolution. At first he thought that this was strange, since the growth of the manufacturing system meant higher wages and cheaper goods. Poverty was decreasing, but at the same time it was seen as a worse problem than before.
His conclusion was that this happened not despite but because poverty was being reduced. In earlier times, poverty was seen as something given. Something that was everywhere, and something that we just had to learn to endure. Religions evolved that explained the virtues of poverty. But in the 18 th and 19 th centuries, industrialisation created unprecedented wealth and millions were lifted out of poverty. The result was that the poverty that remained was perceived as so much worse. Now that people could see that the poor aren’t always with us, they began to wonder why we should put up with it. It wasn’t necessary, it could - and should - be changed. Poverty was not a given any more, it was now a social problem.
This created the impression for a long time that the industrial revolution created bigger social problems. Well, in a way it did - by making poverty an exception it created poverty as a problem in the minds of people. "
*****************************************************************
"But that is not the point I am interested in, the point here is to understand the kind of threats and warnings that special interests engage in, and how this distorts our worldview. Some reveal this openly. In an interview in Discover Magazine in October 1989, an often quoted environmentalist scientist and an expert on climate change, Professor Stephen Schneider, explained that:
”To [save the planet] we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have... Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.” "
*****************************************************************
"A few years ago a Swedish anti-globalist explained that he had been in a debate where the pro-capitalists had "constantly referred back to facts", but the anti-capitalists had been more successful because they "used examples from reality". Facts vs examples apparently. Aggregated statistics and broad abstractions vs flesh and blood. And I am not sure about who wins such a debate. We human beings like narratives and examples that we relate to. If an audience hears that there are almost 400 million fewer people in absolute poverty today than in 1981, but also hears a dramatic story about a specific individual who has fallen into poverty during this time - it’s not certain that they think that poverty has been reduced. And because of all the mechanisms and mentalities I have discussed, we don’t hear the first thing nearly as often as the latter."
*****************************************************************
"To regain the belief in progress and the future, we have to understand what creates it. It is not a coincidence, it is capitalism. It is the fact that people who are free create, the fact that we are problem-solvers, and the more people alive who are free to think and innovate, the greater the chance that some of them will develop useful knowledge, technology and wealth, and if the incentives are correct, if people reap the rewards of their labour, they will use and implement this, to change our world for the better. And in a world where billions are free to create, the chances of a better world are greater than ever. And therefore, we should believe in the future. Not naively, not like determinists thinking that nothing can go wrong. We know that conflicts, terrorism, disease and natural disasters can and will cause enormous damage. But as a recognition that mankind is smart, and that a free flow of information and of markets make us even smarter. And that we deal with problems better if we are free and wealthy. Each generation builds on the achievements of the past, and so have we have constantly more to build upon. Therefore, the greatest progress is yet to be made.
The long-run prospects are amazing. Today we have more people living longer lives in freer societies than ever, and we have more scientists alive today than lived in all previous periods combined, and they all get an education that is almost as long as a lifetime in earlier periods. Biotechnology, nanotechnology and robotics will create massive improvements. We will be richer, we will live longer and we will be healthier. Continents that we thought were doomed to misery will soon have the living standards we have today. "
Leedlo poco a poco que vale la pena.
